"""Monte Carlo runner: many deterministic battles aggregated into balance metrics. Each run builds fresh combatant states (duplicate ids get -N suffixes), places each side inside its deployment zone, and plays one battle with a dedicated SeededRng stream derived from the encounter seed. Results are aggregated into an EncounterReport: wins per side, draws, average rounds, and per-combatant attrition averages. All statistical helpers live in metrics.py. """ from __future__ import annotations from dataclasses import dataclass from typing import TYPE_CHECKING if TYPE_CHECKING: from pf1e_simulator.combat import Policy from pf1e_simulator.grid import Grid from pf1e_simulator.map import MapSpec from pf1e_simulator.models import Combatant from pf1e_simulator.spells import SpellSpec from pf1e_simulator.combat import ( SIZE_CELLS, CombatantState, CombatantStats, CombatEngine, ) from pf1e_simulator.grid import Grid from pf1e_simulator.map import Pos, zone_cells from pf1e_simulator.metrics import win_rate, win_rate_band, win_rate_sigma from pf1e_simulator.rng import SeededRng from pf1e_simulator.spells import SPELLS_DIR, load_spell_registry @dataclass(frozen=True) class Side: """One faction in an encounter: combatants deployed inside one zone letter.""" name: str combatants: tuple[Combatant, ...] zone: str @dataclass(frozen=True) class EncounterSpec: """A full encounter definition: map, sides, and a battle round cap.""" map: MapSpec sides: tuple[Side, ...] round_cap: int = 100 @dataclass(frozen=True) class CombatantAttrition: """Average per-combatant outcomes over a Monte Carlo run.""" hits: float crits: float damage_dealt: float damage_taken: float healing_done: float @dataclass(frozen=True) class EncounterReport: """Aggregated results of a Monte Carlo encounter. `transcript` holds the turn-by-turn log of the first battle when `run_encounter` is called with ``capture_first_transcript=True``; it is None otherwise (the default keeps the report cheap for pure Monte Carlo). """ runs: int seed: int wins: dict[str, int] draws: int avg_rounds: float attrition: dict[str, CombatantAttrition] transcript: tuple[str, ...] | None = None def win_rate(self, side: str) -> float: """Fraction of runs won by `side` (closed form, see metrics).""" return win_rate(self.wins.get(side, 0), self.runs) def win_rate_sigma(self, side: str) -> float: """Standard error of the side's win rate: sqrt(p(1-p)/n).""" return win_rate_sigma(self.win_rate(side), self.runs) def win_rate_band(self, side: str) -> tuple[float, float]: """3-sigma confidence band for the side's win rate.""" return win_rate_band(self.win_rate(side), self.runs) def _first_fit_anchor( cells: list[Pos], placed: set[Pos], n: int, grid: Grid ) -> Pos | None: """First zone cell whose n x n footprint is in bounds, passable, and unplaced.""" for anchor in cells: r, c = anchor footprint = {(r + dr, c + dc) for dr in range(n) for dc in range(n)} if any(not grid.in_bounds(p) or not grid.passable(p) for p in footprint): continue if footprint & placed: continue return anchor return None def build_states(spec: EncounterSpec) -> list[CombatantState]: """Fresh states for one battle; duplicate combatant ids get -N suffixes. The suffix keeps incrementing until the candidate id is not already taken, so an explicit id like ``goblin-2`` never collides with a disambiguated duplicate of ``goblin`` (the engine keys stats by id). Combatants of a side fill the zone's cells in (row, col) order. A side with more combatants than zone cells, or a zone with no cells, is a spec error. Creatures larger than 1x1 occupy an n x n footprint anchored at their cell. """ states: list[CombatantState] = [] taken: set[str] = set() grid = Grid.from_spec(spec.map) for side in spec.sides: cells = zone_cells(spec.map, side.zone) if not cells: msg = f"side {side.name!r}: zone {side.zone!r} has no cells" raise ValueError(msg) placed: set[Pos] = set() for combatant in side.combatants: n = SIZE_CELLS.get(combatant.size, 1) anchor = _first_fit_anchor(cells, placed, n, grid) if anchor is None: if n == 1: msg = ( f"side {side.name!r}: zone {side.zone!r} has {len(cells)} cells " f"for {len(side.combatants)} combatants" ) else: msg = ( f"side {side.name!r}: zone {side.zone!r} has no room for " f"{combatant.id!r} ({combatant.size}, {n}x{n})" ) raise ValueError(msg) cid = combatant.id suffix = 2 while cid in taken: cid = f"{combatant.id}-{suffix}" suffix += 1 taken.add(cid) effective = ( combatant if cid == combatant.id else combatant.model_copy(update={"id": cid}) ) placed |= { (anchor[0] + dr, anchor[1] + dc) for dr in range(n) for dc in range(n) } states.append( CombatantState( combatant=effective, side=side.name, pos=anchor, hp=effective.hp_max, resources_left=dict(effective.resources), ) ) return states def run_encounter( spec: EncounterSpec, runs: int, seed: int, *, policy: Policy | None = None, spell_registry: dict[str, SpellSpec] | None = None, capture_first_transcript: bool = False, monsters_die_at_zero: bool = False, ) -> EncounterReport: """Run `runs` battles (one SeededRng per run) and aggregate balance metrics. The spell registry is loaded once (from ``data/spells/`` unless overridden) and passed into every ``CombatEngine`` so caster PCs actually cast. When ``capture_first_transcript`` is True, the turn-by-turn log of the first battle (``seed + 0``) is stored in ``report.transcript``. ``monsters_die_at_zero`` enables the optional simple monster-death rule (CLI ``--simple-monster-death``): monsters die at hp <= 0; PCs keep the PF1e hp <= -CON rule. Default False keeps behavior bit-identical. """ if runs <= 0: msg = "runs must be positive" raise ValueError(msg) grid = Grid.from_spec(spec.map) states = build_states(spec) if spell_registry is None: spell_registry = load_spell_registry(SPELLS_DIR) wins = {side.name: 0 for side in spec.sides} draws = 0 total_rounds = 0 # Accumulate whatever ids the engine reports: summoned creatures act in the # battle and appear in result.stats, so seeding from the initial states # only would KeyError on them. Ids seen for the first time get a fresh # accumulator. Duplicate summons of the same creature are disambiguated by # the engine the same way build_states does (celestial_wolf, # celestial_wolf-2, ...), so each summoned creature owns its own slot and # their attrition is split, not merged. totals: dict[str, CombatantStats] = {} transcript: tuple[str, ...] | None = None for index in range(runs): if index > 0: states = build_states(spec) rng = SeededRng(seed + index) result = CombatEngine( rng, grid, states, round_cap=spec.round_cap, policy=policy, spell_registry=spell_registry, monsters_die_at_zero=monsters_die_at_zero, ).run() if capture_first_transcript and index == 0: transcript = result.transcript if result.winner is None: draws += 1 else: wins[result.winner] = wins.get(result.winner, 0) + 1 total_rounds += result.rounds for cid, stats in result.stats.items(): current = totals.get(cid) if current is None: totals[cid] = stats continue totals[cid] = CombatantStats( hits=current.hits + stats.hits, crits=current.crits + stats.crits, damage_dealt=current.damage_dealt + stats.damage_dealt, damage_taken=current.damage_taken + stats.damage_taken, healing_done=current.healing_done + stats.healing_done, ) attrition = { cid: CombatantAttrition( hits=stats.hits / runs, crits=stats.crits / runs, damage_dealt=stats.damage_dealt / runs, damage_taken=stats.damage_taken / runs, healing_done=stats.healing_done / runs, ) for cid, stats in totals.items() } return EncounterReport( runs=runs, seed=seed, wins=wins, draws=draws, avg_rounds=total_rounds / runs, attrition=attrition, transcript=transcript, )